Hey Guys,
Yesterday after the Fed released its policy update, the market got a little wild for a bit but eventually found its footing and cruised even higher.
To me this is a great example of how hard it is to predict where the market is going. We're in midst of a period of high inflation, looming interest rate hikes, and global turmoil, and leading up to the Fed event many people might have expected a negative market reaction to their policy update. And yet here the market went higher. It epitomizes why I don't try to analyze the news. The market's reaction to news and events doesn't always seem intuitive. Instead I lean on history to determine statistical probabilities and I make my trading decisions based on those. That's why my focus is always on staying in lock step with the back test rather than trying to dissect the latest market news or predict how the market will react to major events.
I had a few positions close for profits today. My PBA stock trade reached its profit target, as did one of my SPY options trades. I closed FCX from the low-priced account since it reached its time limit, and that one also locked in a profit.
I haven't yet picked up any new positions today. No stocks have qualified for my trading strategy criteria yet today.
I have a few options positions that reached their time limits today, so I'll be closing those at the end of trading today. One of those is a naked put I have for SPY. That one is 97% of the way to a full profit, so I wouldn't blame anyone for closing that one right now instead of waiting until the end of the day. I sold the put for $6.25 and right now its value is $0.15. So if you bought it back right now, you'd make a profit of $6.10 per contract.
If you have any questions or feedback, I'd love to hear from you.