Mindful Trader Commentary For January 12, 2024


Hey Guys,


The market took a dip after yesterday's email, perhaps in response to the inflation report, but then it roared back and today is reaching higher. The S&P 500 is around 4,785 right now and showing strength.


My AXP options from the double down account hit their profit target this morning. I also had a couple stock positions reach their time limits (URI and CFG), and both of those locked in profits. My DOCU stock position from the double down account reached its profit target late yesterday.


I also closed a bunch of option positions yesterday that reached their time limits. Overall, my options account had a nice rebound week as did my double down account. My main account had net gains with stocks this week, but stumbled with a couple option trades.


I want to point out a crazy "near miss" with my timing on the DOCU options. I locked in partial profits on both options I held yesterday for them. But the timing of when I closed them turned out to matter. I always close my options near the end of trading, and if I'm at my desk with about half an hour left until the close, that's typically when I go in and start closing them out. The process isn't supposed to involve discretion; it's just going in and systematically closing them at the prevailing price. That's what I did yesterday, and I closed both DOCU options at 12:31pm.


Well, look what happened one minute later:



News came out on DOCU and it skyrocketed. I would have hit profit targets on both option positions if I had waited one more minute to close them (I hope some of you took that ride!).


When you think of that odds statistically of that happening, it's astounding. It's so improbable that news would come out on a position I held within one minute of me closing the position. Yet it happened.


And there will probably be another situation like it again in the future. It's one of the things we have to learn to deal with as traders: those "oh so close" opportunities that we miss. Rather than get upset about it, I can smile and notice how improbable it was that it unfolded that way. I also can bring to mind the times when I was the beneficiary of a move like that (it happened a few months ago with SPLK for me).


I haven't yet picked up any new positions today.


If you have any questions or feedback, I'd love to hear from you.


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